News: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist

There are weeks when I just don’t have the space to focus on a specific dynamic as it relates to a PGA TOUR event. This is one of them, but the mailbag allows for the opportunity to peel back the layers.

In Monday’s Power Rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, I cast broad strokes on actual scoring averages of all three tracks in play this week — Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Club and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. Pebble and Spyglass are traditional par 72s while Monterey plays to a par of 34-36=70.

Despite another brief nod to Yahoo! gamers in my fantasy preview on Tuesday — Yahoo! awards points based on scores in relation to par, not aggregates — confusion continues over how to attack this tournament.

Here are a pair of queries sent my way on Twitter:

"Fair to say favor MPCC, then Pebble in daily leagues. Avoid Spy? At least that’s how I recall them." — @G_Turcotte

"In terms of toughness for courses this week, does it go MPCC (easiest), Pebble (medium), Spyglass (hardest)? — @cccgolfer08

And one email that arrived today:

"Do you feel it is best to use the players who are on the Monterey Course rather than those who are playing Pebble and Spyglass? My understanding is that Spyglass plays the hardest and it may be best to leave any of your players on the bench for the Spyglass round? Do you agree?" — Joe

Frankly, I’m glad for the persistence to confirm. It has forced me to dig a little deeper. What I discovered was surprising.

First, it’s important to know that I went back just two years since Monterey Peninsula rejoined the rotation. Next, I threw out the final-round scoring averages at Pebble Beach. This was a significant step. It eliminated splits in relation to par of +1.217 in 2010 and +1.225 in 2011, easily the two highest of all of the individual rounds since 2010.

So, below are the scoring averages in relation to par through three rounds only (encompassing 54 holes at each course). They are ranked from easiest to hardest.

2011
-0.160 Monterey Peninsula
-0.006 Pebble Beach
+0.426 Spyglass

2010
-1.167 Pebble Beach
-1.052 Monterey Peninsula
-0.397 Spyglass

Other nuggets worth noting:

● Comparing individual-round scoring averages over the first three rounds — three per course per year for a total of 18 splits — Monterey Peninsula’s +0.712 in the first round in 2011 is highest. (Pebble checked in at +0.462 that day. Spyglass averaged +0.442, the only time of the six rounds it ranked as the easiest in any of the six rounds.)

● Monterey Peninsula ranked as the easiest in the second and third rounds in 2011 with respective splits of (-0.712) and (-0.481).

● In 2010, Pebble Beach was the easiest in the first round at (-1.115). Its (-1.308) average in the third round is the lowest in relation to par of all 18 rounds included in the comparison.

● Monterey Peninsula’s (-1.250) was easiest in the second round of 2010. Pebble averaged (-1.077) the same day.

Therefore, while we already knew that Yahoo! gamers need to lean on Monterey Peninsula, sidestepping Pebble Beach is unnecessary if not discouraged.

Start guys with confidence on either course in any of the first three rounds. And as @G_Turcotte accurately surmised, avoid Spy.